Here’s a structured summary and analysis of the current state and upcoming transformation of Finland’s gambling sector, based on the detailed information you’ve provided:

🇫🇮 Finland’s Gambling Sector: Key Developments & Upcoming Reform

🔒 Current Model: Monopoly System

• Operator: Veikkaus, a state-owned company formed in 2017 from a merger of Veikkaus, Fintoto, and RAY.

• Rights: Holds exclusive rights to both retail and digital gambling.

• Current Legal Framework: One of the strictest in Europe, designed to control gambling harm.

📉 Declining Revenues

• Peak Revenue: €1.69bn in 2019

• 2024 Revenue: €959.1m – a 45% drop in six years

• 2024 Digital Share: 60.2% of revenue

• Contributing Factors:

  • New authentication rules for ticket games

  • Reduced physical slot machine access

  • Weaker consumer spending

  • Game release delays

  • Rise of offshore (unlicensed) operators

🚨 The Offshore Gambling Threat

• Veikkaus’ Estimate (2024): €550m goes to offshore operators

• Former Exec Jari Vähänen’s Estimate: €900m, nearly matching Veikkaus’ total revenue

• Channelization Rate: Veikkaus believes it holds about 50% of the digital gambling market

• Implication: The unregulated market rivals or exceeds the legal market

📈 Upcoming Reform: Liberalization by 2027

• Deadline: Monopoly ends December 2026

• Licensing Starts: 2026, operators may begin applying

• Focus Areas:

  • Breaking Veikkaus’ exclusive hold on digital gambling

  • Retaining monopoly on lottery, scratch cards, and slots

  • Enforcing strict marketing and advertising limits

  • Implementing strong player protection mechanisms

🧩 Models for Reform – Global Inspirations

• Denmark: Multi-license system with 90%+ channelization

• Sweden: Licensing with high enforcement and player protections

• UK: Statutory levy funds ~£100m for harm prevention & research

Matej Novota (Casino Guru):

🔮 Veikkaus’ Outlook & Adaptation

• Position: Veikkaus supports the reform and is preparing for competition

• Strategy:

  • Investing in business development and international expansion

  • Restructuring around a new mission: “We passionately drive better gaming”

  • Preparing to compete as a licensed operator in the new ecosystem

💬 Expert Commentary

Jari Vähänen (Former Veikkaus Exec):

Matej Novota:

🕰️ Conclusion: A Ticking Clock

Finland is approaching a critical turning point in its gambling regulation. With the monopoly set to end in 2026 and a competitive market opening in 2027, the goal is clear:

Let me know if you’d like this reformatted as a policy brief, press release, internal memo, or media Q&A.